NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:MLB playoff rankings: Top eight World Series contenders after trade deadline

Major League Baseball’s silly season has passed. And now the many contenders for the World Series are NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerlargely helpless to improve their club.

Tuesday’s trade deadline was the last chance for executives to make significant external improvements to their franchises, and even then, there’s only so much they can control.

After all, it takes two to make a deal happen, and the players not dealt at the deadline – from Garrett Crochet and Yandy Diaz to Blake Snell and Brent Rooker – only further crimped the ability for clubs to maneuver.

So, who’s positioned to make the ever-elusive October run and snag the American and National league pennants, and crack the finals of Rob Manfred’s playoff bracket?

USA TODAY Sports examines the eight teams with the best rosters, vibes and projected path to get there:

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1. Philadelphia Phillies

For all the faux hopes and pipe dreams the trade deadline engenders (hey, if you click on it, we’ll toss it shamelessly out there), the die has largely been cast long before the first April listicle dreaming about buyers and sellers. And let’s not overthink this: The Phillies were and are the game’s most complete team.

They didn’t have a bad deadline, either, getting a little more right-handed punch with left fielder Austin Hays, ensuring this vaunted lineup won’t hit a Johan Rojas sinkhole. They tweaked the bullpen, letting disposable parts Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez aim for rebirth in Baltimore while importing Angels closer Carlos Estévez. What a sixth-through-ninth inning mix-and-match for Rob Thomson: Estévez, Orion Kerkering, All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm and lefty José Alvarado will make it late very early in Philly.

2. New York Yankees

They probably needed a starting pitcher. They’re still not sure what they’ll get out of Gleyber Torres down the stretch. And a gasping bullpen got mostly quantity instead of quality.

But it’s hard to miss the burst of energy the Yankees received with Jazz Chisholm’s arrival. Not only did the lineup lengthen a bit, but the club got younger and more athletic, lessening ever so slightly the dependence on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to hit baseballs out of the park.

It might be wishful thinking to hope Giancarlo Stanton – who returned this week – stays healthy. And veteran DJ LeMahieu is more liability than versatile part these days. But the lineup looks as it should now, with Ben Rice and Anthony Volpe at the bottom. And the rotation has Gerrit Cole at the top. That’s enough of a base that Judge and Soto’s greatness can force everything else into place.

3. Cleveland Guardians

The starting pitcher market moved pretty quickly on them, and after Zach Eflin and Erick Fedde and others found a place to sit, the Guardians grabbed Alex Cobb before the musical chairs were filled.

It was a bit of hopeful projection, as Cobb has not pitched this year due to hip surgery and a blister problem while on a rehab assignment. But his veteran presence and playoff experience will be a boon to a club that has jus about everything.

Most notably: A lockdown bullpen that needed no tweaking, and one that, come October, should make the Guardians a very tough out, especially with their high-contact, dynamic offense.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Felt like Jack Flaherty was the guy they had to have and hoo boy, did they just get him, welcoming the SoCal kid home minutes before the deadline. Flaherty has completed at least six innings in 12 of 18 starts, which will give a wheezing bullpen immediate relief, and had a decent playoff track record before undergoing 2022 shoulder surgery.

Meanwhile, Tommy Edman, still rehabbing an ankle injury, will give the club a dose of needed versatility and should thrive in postseason play, moving the ball around behind the Dodgers’ vaunted quartet of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith.

This doesn’t look like a season of massive expectations that suffocate the Dodgers, nor a desiccated and worn down bunch that was gone in a blink last year.

5. Baltimore Orioles

In their first season as big-boy buyers, the Orioles played the industry standard, clutching their Top 100 prospects closely. It’s just that the Orioles have more of those guys than anyone, so the haul of starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers, relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto and outfielders Eloy Jimenez, Austin Slater and Cristian Pache felt light on blue chip acquisitions.

But the group does deepen the rotation and diversify the bench and gives GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde a lot of chess pieces to play with, series to series and game to game come October. Can their young hitters match the Yankees’ firepower and hold onto the division? That’s pretty much the difference between getting anointed AL favorites and feeling vulnerable about navigating three playoff series out of the wild card chute.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Yeah, looks like they’re doing it again. The Diamondbacks are peaking at the right time, welcoming back recovered pitchers and augmenting just enough. The A.J. Puk pickup was huge for the bullpen, Josh Bell can keep first base warm while Christian Walker recovers and the returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly loom.

They are going to need a favorable playoff matchup – at Milwaukee, again? – to get out of the first round, but all the elements that made them a tough out last October are present.

7. Milwaukee Brewers

They have a seven-game NL Central lead and a gaggle of division rivals likelier to recede than advance – yep, sometimes location is everything. Turns out their most active rival was also their most flawed: St. Louis added starter Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham, but with a -51 run differential and a sputtering lineup, the Cardinals may not be a true threat.

So on balance, the addition of starter Frankie Montas from the intra-division Reds, the return of All-Star closer Devin Williams and Rockies acquisition Nick Mears to the bullpen isn’t such a bad spot to be in.

Can the club make up the 1 ½ game deficit on the Dodgers and snag a first-round bye?

8. San Diego Padres

AJ Preller can’t stop, won’t stop, and has proven that since the off-season trade of Juan Soto all the way through the trade deadline.

Heck, the Padres were already acquisition winners simply by the March add of ace Dylan Cease and May welcoming of hits machine Luis Arraez. But then Preller had to go all “trade deadline winner” and mortgage even more of the farm to get relief prize Tanner Scott.

It’s a daunting look: Cease and Michael King as 1-2 playoff starters and a bullpen that can end games after five or six innings with Scott, closer Robert Suarez and set-up man Jeremiah Estrada. We’d be inclined to rank the Padres far higher for this reason but again, access is everything: They’re hanging on to the No. 3 wild card and unlikely to catch the Dodgers in the division. But don’t let them get in. And don’t let them get hot.